According to Charlie Bilello, Tesla delivered 418,000 vehicles in Q4, a 16% year-over-year decline that marks the largest YoY drop in the company’s history, source: Charlie Bilello on X (Jan 2, 2026) and bilello.blog/newsletter. Deliveries are a primary volume driver of Tesla’s automotive revenue because revenue is recognized upon customer delivery, making the YoY decline a direct volume headwind for Q4 results analysis, source: Tesla 2023 Form 10-K (Revenue Recognition section) at ir.tesla.com. For crypto traders, research shows Bitcoin (BTC) and U.S. equities have exhibited higher co-movement since 2020, so risk-off moves around TSLA can coincide with broader risk sentiment shifts that may affect BTC and ETH, source: IMF blog (Jan 2022) “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks” at imf.org.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 dividend yield finished the year at 1.15%, the lowest level since 2000 (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Jan 2, 2026). This multi-decade low in equity income is a key input for traders evaluating cross-asset return profiles and risk appetite across stocks and crypto markets (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Jan 2, 2026).

According to CNBC, the S&P 500 is on a rare streak of high returns, prompting a look at what historical patterns may imply for 2026; source: CNBC. Historical data show that U.S. midterm election years have typically been the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle for the S&P 500, with elevated volatility and rebounds often concentrated later in the year, based on Stock Trader’s Almanac data summarized by Fidelity Investments; source: Fidelity Investments. Research from the International Monetary Fund finds that crypto assets have moved more in sync with U.S. equities since 2020 (the BTC–S&P 500 return correlation rose to roughly 0.36 in 2020–2021 from near zero pre-pandemic), indicating that shifts in the S&P 500 trend in 2026 can materially influence BTC and ETH performance; source: International Monetary Fund.

According to @KobeissiLetter, 52% of Americans in December expected higher stock prices over the next 12 months, one of the strongest readings since this question began in 1987 (source: @KobeissiLetter). Since April 2025, the bullish share is up about 15 points, signaling elevated retail risk appetite that equity traders track for positioning (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto, equity risk-on sentiment has historically spilled over into digital assets as stock–crypto correlations increased notably after 2020, affecting BTC and broader market beta (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022). Traders also monitor extreme optimism as a contrarian input, as unusually high bullish sentiment has preceded below-average forward equity returns in AAII studies, informing risk management for BTC and ETH during equity-driven moves (source: American Association of Individual Investors, Sentiment Survey research).

According to CNBC, U.S. stock futures were little changed after the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, per its Dec 28, 2025 live updates post on X (source: CNBC tweet, Dec 28, 2025). CNBC’s update did not report a notable move in futures following the record, indicating no confirmed follow-through momentum at the time of the post (source: CNBC tweet, Dec 28, 2025). The update provided no sector leadership, macro catalyst, or cross‑asset context, implying no explicit directional signal for BTC or ETH from this item alone (source: CNBC tweet, Dec 28, 2025).

According to @godbole17, President Trump stated that strong economic data is no longer bullish because markets immediately price in Federal Reserve tightening, meaning good news now caps upside instead of extending rallies; Source: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2003527960847110192; Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/2003710197156745260. He added that markets fear the policy response more than they reward growth, treating rate hikes as the default reaction to strength, which suppresses momentum and shortens market cycles; Source: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2003527960847110192. For traders, this outlines a good-news-is-bad-news regime where positive prints trigger a tightening repricing in rates rather than trend extension, signaling capped upside in rate-sensitive risk exposures; Source: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2003527960847110192. Because crypto has increasingly moved in tandem with broader risk sentiment, policy-driven regimes like this can transmit to BTC and the wider crypto market via macro channels; Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-equities-posing-new-risks.

According to @CryptoKing4Ever, Bitcoin is as undervalued against global liquidity now as it was at the 2018 bottom, implying a macro generational floor may be forming, source: @CryptoKing4Ever. BTC’s 2018 cycle low occurred in December 2018, providing the reference point for the comparison in the post, source: TradingView. The post does not include any underlying dataset or chart to substantiate the undervaluation versus global liquidity claim, source: @CryptoKing4Ever. In liquidity-based macro analysis, the Bank for International Settlements defines global liquidity as the ease of financing in international markets through cross-border credit and funding in key currencies, which market participants use to gauge risk-asset sensitivity, source: Bank for International Settlements. Traders applying this framework typically validate such a thesis by monitoring BIS global liquidity indicators alongside major central bank balance sheets as proxies for system-wide liquidity before positioning in BTC, source: Bank for International Settlements and Federal Reserve.

According to @CNBC, the latest Federal Reserve meeting offered several market-friendly points while warning of policy restraint, as reflected in the CNBC Daily Open headline, which shapes the near-term risk tone across assets. source: CNBC CNBC frames the setup as supportive but cautious, directing traders to focus on interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar—key drivers of risk appetite and liquidity that affect crypto markets including BTC and ETH. source: CNBC

According to CNBC, Jim Cramer named stocks to buy following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, as shared in a December 10, 2025 post, signaling a post-easing setup for equity traders (source: CNBC on X). According to CNBC, the timing of these picks is tied directly to the policy shift, which CNBC highlights as a catalyst that can change sector leadership and risk appetite after rate decisions (source: CNBC). According to CNBC, easier policy has often coincided with stronger risk sentiment that can spill over into major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, making cross-asset monitoring relevant for crypto traders as Cramer’s picks come into focus (source: CNBC).

According to @CNBC, the Federal Reserve may opt for a hawkish cut, meaning a rate reduction with tight guidance, which could dull market festivities and curb risk appetite across equities and crypto. Source: CNBC @CNBC notes that in such a scenario the tone and forward guidance matter more than the headline cut for near term price action, raising volatility risk in S and P 500 futures, Treasury yields, the US dollar, BTC and ETH. Source: CNBC For trading, @CNBC’s warning implies close attention to the policy statement and press conference, as restrictive messaging could trigger knee jerk reversals in high beta assets and crypto liquidity. Source: CNBC

According to @CryptoKing4Ever, markets are pricing an 86.2% probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut this week (source: @CryptoKing4Ever). The author states the Fed is set to open the liquidity floodgates, framing this as bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) and risk assets (source: @CryptoKing4Ever). The author advises traders to prepare for volatility, anticipate potential green candles, and assess positioning ahead of the decision (source: @CryptoKing4Ever).

According to @simplykashif, Polymarket markets are pricing a 93% probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut, signaling a strong dovish consensus among traders, according to Polymarket. Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has moved more in sync with U.S. equities since 2020, indicating heightened sensitivity to monetary conditions, according to International Monetary Fund research from 2022 on crypto–stock co-movements. Lower policy rates are associated with declining yields and a softer U.S. dollar, which have historically supported risk assets including BTC and ETH, according to Federal Reserve explanations of monetary policy transmission and Kaiko Research (2023) analysis on BTC sensitivity to real yields.

According to @milesdeutscher, Scott Bessent says 2026 is shaping up to be a monster year for the U.S. economy driven by tax cuts, massive deregulation, and new trade deals pulling capital back into U.S. manufacturing, a setup he says can heat up risk assets including crypto such as BTC and ETH, source: @milesdeutscher on X, Dec 8, 2025, quoting Scott Bessent via @CryptosR_Us. He adds regulation is coming off the books fast, factories are expanding, and high-paying jobs are being added, suggesting macro momentum is turning and the next leg may already be loading, source: @milesdeutscher on X, Dec 8, 2025, quoting Scott Bessent via @CryptosR_Us. For traders, this pro-growth and looser financial conditions thesis implies a risk-on tilt and potential upside bias for BTC and ETH alongside other high beta assets if the policy drivers materialize as described, source: @milesdeutscher on X, Dec 8, 2025, quoting Scott Bessent via @CryptosR_Us. Key watchpoints highlighted include U.S. tax policy announcements, deregulatory actions, and new trade deals to confirm or negate the risk-on view for crypto markets, source: @milesdeutscher on X, Dec 8, 2025, quoting Scott Bessent via @CryptosR_Us.

According to @BullTheoryio, the latest US PCE inflation and Core PCE each printed 2.8%, versus expectations of 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, indicating softer-than-expected inflation pressure (source: @BullTheoryio). The author states that with inflation easing and growth slowing, the Federal Reserve has less justification to keep policy rates elevated, raising near-term rate cut odds (source: @BullTheoryio). The post adds that this backdrop is positive for markets, liquidity, and risk assets such as BTC and ETH, implying a supportive environment for crypto as policy expectations ease (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors awaited delayed inflation data, signaling a softer rates backdrop into the release. Source: CNBC. For traders, easing yields are a supportive macro input for risk assets and warrant close monitoring of BTC and ETH price action around the data window as crypto often reacts to shifts in U.S. rates and the dollar during key inflation prints. Source: CNBC.

According to @CNBC, U.S. stock futures were little changed after the major indexes closed higher as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts; the coverage is presented as live premarket updates. Source: CNBC. Because crypto and U.S. equities have shown elevated correlation during macro shocks, Fed-driven equity sentiment can influence intraday volatility in BTC and ETH when rate expectations shift. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2022).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Fed must cut rates even with inflation at 3% to support strained consumers, and he expects additional cuts as large-cap tech rallies (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto trading, easier policy and lower real yields have historically coincided with stronger BTC and ETH performance due to tighter equity–crypto correlations since 2020 (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 Global Financial Stability Note on crypto–equity correlation). Traders can track cut odds via fed funds futures, policy guidance via FOMC statements, and macro drivers via the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. Dollar Index to gauge risk-on momentum (sources: CME Group; Federal Reserve; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE). Catalyst watch: CPI releases and FOMC meetings are the key events that would validate or refute the rate-cut path and its impact on crypto liquidity and beta (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve).

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields inched lower as investors awaited further economic data, signaling a wait-and-see stance across markets. According to @CNBC, the move reflects caution ahead of upcoming macro releases that traders monitor for potential shifts in rate expectations and cross-asset volatility.

According to QCPgroup, BTC is steady in the mid 90k range after rebounding from 86k, with market tone remaining cautious and positioning showing little appetite to add exposure (source: QCPgroup on X, Dec 3, 2025). According to QCPgroup, risk assets are drifting into a politically charged FOMC next week, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance for crypto traders (source: QCPgroup on X, Dec 3, 2025).

According to @DowdEdward, a key driver of the 2023–2024 U.S. economy was deficit-financed support he characterizes as fraud, including funding via NGOs, and he claims this flow has now stopped (source: @DowdEdward on X, Dec 1, 2025). Official data confirm the U.S. ran very large federal deficits of roughly $1.7 trillion in FY2023 and about $1.7 trillion in FY2024, underscoring a strong fiscal impulse over that period (source: U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement; Congressional Budget Office annual budget reports). If fiscal support fades and Treasury issuance or cash management tightens system liquidity, risk assets including BTC and equities have historically shown sensitivity to financial conditions and liquidity measures (source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2022 on rising crypto–equity correlations). Traders should monitor Treasury issuance, Quarterly Refunding Announcements, and Treasury General Account swings that influence bank reserves and dollar liquidity, which can transmit to risk appetite across BTC and tech equities (source: U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding materials; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics analysis of the TGA and reserve balances). No independent evidence for the fraud allegation is provided in the cited post, so positioning should rely on official fiscal and issuance data rather than unverified claims (source: @DowdEdward on X, Dec 1, 2025).